Dougherty's 68 leads Open early; Woods shoots 71

Golf Betting Lines

06/14/2007 - Oakmont, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nick Dougherty was the early first-round leader at the U.S. Open after finishing off a two-under 68 Thursday afternoon at Oakmont.

Angel Cabrera was a shot further back at one-under 69.

Tiger Woods and defending champion Geoff Ogilvy both shot one-over 71 playing the same group, and a host of other well-known players were in the mix.

Wearing a brace on his left wrist, Phil Mickelson was on the practice green well ahead of his 1:36 p.m. (et) tee time.

Dougherty's number was already one shot better than the leading 18-hole score at Winged Foot last year, when Colin Montgomerie's 69 was the highest first- round score to lead a U.S. Open in 20 years.

Indeed, there were plenty of low scores early Thursday when it looked like the rain Oakmont received on Wednesday might have slowed the greens considerably and given the players some advantage.

"I certainly think it's helped us because it softened up the greens today," said Dougherty, who needed just 11 putts to shoot 32 on the back nine. "You can get putts to stop relatively close to the hole."

Dougherty had four birdies to go along with back-to-back bogeys at Nos. 7 and 8. His last birdie was set up by a 54-degree wedge shot to six feet at the 17th, a 313-yard par four.

The 25-year-old Englishman, who is still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, said he though the course was "easy." Not that he wanted everyone to know he said it.

"I hate saying it ... Especially if a USGA official picks up on that," he commented.

Still, there were only around a dozen players at even-par or better when Woods finished. Bubba Watson and Jose Maria Olazabal were in the clubhouse with even-par 70s.

David Toms started hot and was an early leader, but he made five bogeys on his last six holes and shot a two-over 72. Pablo Martin, a 21-year-old Spaniard, was tied with Woods and Ogilvy at 71.

Oakmont was showing its teeth.

Woods hit his first drive at No. 1 into one of the course's 210 bunkers and opened with a bogey, but came right back with a 15-foot birdie at the second hole to get to even-par. He made par from bunkers at the third and fourth, then rolled in another 15-foot putt for birdie at the sixth.

He was even-par around the turn, though, after making a bogey from a bunker at 288-yard, par-three eighth, then slipped to one-over with a two-putt bogey at the 10th.

Hitting into another bunker at the 12th, Woods made bogey and fell to two- over. But he made a good par after hitting into a bowl-like scoop in the green at the 13th, then later moved back to one-over with a three-foot birdie at the 17th.

It was a grinder's round from the world's top player.

"The golf course is playing hard, and this is with pretty benign conditions and pretty favorable pin positions," Woods said. "You know the U.S. Open is going to be a grind."

Woods missed the cut last year at Winged Foot when he opened with back-to-back rounds of 76, then admitted he wasn't ready to play so soon after his father's death.

Thursday, he did just enough to almost guarantee that wouldn't happen again.

"I hit enough fairways to at least give myself a chance," said Woods, who has won two U.S. Opens and 12 majors overall. "When I didn't, I just put it back in play."

The weather Thursday was overcast and cool with a slight breeze -- perfect playing conditions even if the course toughened steadily as the first round wore on.

"Oakmont probably will never play easier than we had it in the first nine holes," said Ogilvy, whose birdies included a six-foot putt at the 13th.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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