Now we go back to the Bronx

Baseball Betting Lines

11/03/2009 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You can argue all you want about whether or not Joe Girardi should have started A.J. Burnett on short rest on the road, or whether Charlie Manuel should have gone with Cliff Lee a day earlier than he did.

Either way, though, this series is headed back to the Bronx.

Wednesday will mark our first Game 6 since 2003 when the world was introduced to Josh Beckett, who tossed a five-hit shutout to eliminate the Yankees and clinch a World Series title that night for the Florida Marlins.

The Yankees are hopeful that Andy Pettitte has a better outcome this time than he did six years ago when he toed the rubber against a 23-year-old Beckett. This time, he will be squaring off against 38-year-old Pedro Martinez in what very well could be the final start of both of their careers.

Surprisingly, these two have never met in a playoff game, and have not faced off anywhere since 2003.

When he takes the ball on Wednesday, Pettitte will be going on short rest for the first time since 2006, when he was with the Houston Astros. Martinez will be working on full rest.

Overall, things haven't gone well for Pettitte on short rest, as he is 4-6 with a 4.15 ERA in those situations. However, in five career postseason starts on three days rest, he is 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA. Two of the best outings of his career have come on short rest: Game 5 of the 1996 World Series, when he tossed 8 1/3 scoreless innings to outduel John Smoltz, and Game 2 of the 2003 World Series when he allowed just an unearned run in 8 2/3 frames.

Of course, Pettitte is not 24 like he was back in Atlanta 13 years ago. But he is still the winningest pitcher in postseason history, and no pitcher has won more clinching games than the six he has under his belt.

It is probably not ideal that the Yankees are in this position, but what was Girardi's other option in Game 5? Chad Gaudin, who's thrown just 2 1/3 innings since September 28?

You could make the case that with Cliff Lee on the hill for the Phillies, that Game 5 was basically a throwaway game, so why not pitch Gaudin? Then you could have had Burnett on full rest in Game 6 at home, where he has thrived. Plus, had Gaudin been given the ball, you would have had Jorge Posada's bat in the lineup against Lee.

Burnett, though, had been excellent on short rest in his career. I can't argue with what Girardi did, especially with how Burnett he looked in Game 2. Did the Yanks do him any favors having him start on short rest on the road? Probably not. But having him and not Gaudin on the hill in Game 5 was the Yankees' best option for winning Game 5. And that is the bottom line.

The bigger issue is that a team with a $200 million payroll does not have a capable fourth starter. Girardi is not to blame for that either, it is Brian Cashman and the front office who deserve the blame for their ridiculous mishandling of Joba Chamberlain.

As they say, though, that is for another time and another place.

I actually have a bigger problem with the way Manuel has handled Lee in this series. I would have let him go on three-days' rest on Sunday, then had him ready to go should a Game 7 be necessary.

Now, he will almost certainly be available should the Phillies get to a decisive game, but after throwing 112 pitches in Monday's win, how much is he going to be able to give you with two days' rest?

Manuel has been a little shaky in this series. I don't know why in the world he took Shane Victorino out of the game in the eighth inning last night. I know Victorino was hurting, but if he made it that long, don't you think he could have finished the game?

Moving on, though, the Phils will once again hand the ball to Martinez in the Bronx. Everyone knows the history, as Martinez is just 1-3 in seven postseason appearances against the Yankees and is 0-3 in his past six outings against them.

Martinez did pitch well against the Yankees in Game 2, however, giving up three runs and six hits in six innings and keeping a potent lineup off-balance all night.

I know Pedro looked good last week, but there are a few reasons I don't like him on Wednesday. For one, he may have benefited early on in that Game 2 contest due to the fact that the Yankee bats were tight after having been baffled by Lee the previous evening. Plus, he had ample rest in between his NLCS gem against the Dodgers and his World Series start. This will be the first time he will pitching on somewhat regular rest in a while.

Then of course, there is the history that Martinez has had against the Yankees, who have gotten the best of him time and time again in big spots. Like he said, they are his daddy.

Before this series started I picked the Yankees in six, and I'm sticking with it. I think both starters will probably struggle on Wednesday, but I like the Yankees if it becomes a battle of the bullpens.

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Big East Conference odds

Work left to do: Villanova, Syracuse, DePaul, West Virginia, Providence

Notre Dame and Louisville appear to have done enough to make the move, so we'll make them locks. The Cardinals, despite a modest RPI, are trending way up and have clinched at least a tie for third in the Big East, which should be more than enough with their pair of big road wins. Villanova got back to .500 and gets back to more solid footing. Syracuse got a very important road win and crippled a fellow contender in the process. West Virginia's fate could be in its hands Tuesday at Pitt.

Work left to do:

Villanova [18-9 (7-7), RPI: 21, SOS: 5] Pounded Rutgers to get back to .500. If Cats can get their last two (at UConn, vs. Syracuse), that should be enough with strong computer numbers and a host of wins away from The Pavilion. The Cats have beaten Texas and swept the Big 5 (never easy in Philly), but have a couple of losses to bubble teams (Xavier, Drexel), too. I still think they'll be OK, possibly even at 8-8.

Syracuse [20-8 (9-5), RPI: 53, SOS: 62] History says 10 wins will be plenty, but it might be hard for the Orange to get that last one with a final two vs. G'town, which is trying to win the league title, and at Villanova, which will be desperate for a W. The relative lack of nonconference heft and the weak computer numbers are still concerns, but the Orange have won four in a row and got a very, very big win at Providence on Saturday.

DePaul [16-12 (8-7), RPI: 54, SOS: 18] Beat Cincy and should get past South Florida to get to 9-7, but then what? They have beaten Kansas and Cal (right after the DeVon Hardin injury) earlier this season, but also have lost to Bradley and Purdue, among others. They'll likely need a couple of BE tourney wins, too, but we'll see ...

West Virginia [19-7 (8-6), RPI: 58, SOS: 125] The game at Pitt on Tuesday night could decide the Mountaineers' fate (barring a deep tournament run). They can still get to 9-7 in the Big East without it by beating Cincinnati, but the nine wins would be against UConn, Villanova, St. John's, South Florida, DePaul, Rutgers, Seton Hall twice and the Bearcats. Beating bubble foes is fine, but where's the beef? Outside of beating PG-less UCLA in nonconference play (still a top quality win), there's not a lot to fall back on (besides maybe NC State). WVU vs. Syracuse would be an interesting debate, as the teams don't play in the Big East regular season. WVU has the best win, but Cuse has played the much better schedule.

Providence [17-10 (7-7), RPI: 70, SOS: 33] The Friars likely saw their at-large hopes die at home in the four-point loss to Syracuse, barring an unexpected run to the Big East semis or more. The RPI, bad already, won't be helped by playing St. John's and South Florida in the final two league games.

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Super Bowl 2009 Betting

Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositions

Underdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.

Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.

Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.

If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.

Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.

By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.

In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.

So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.

While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.

There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.

In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:

SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.

XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.

XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.

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